In this unprecedented 2020 real estate scenario, characterized by a pandemic that has put a large part of the world population at home, great and profound changes are expected. Compared to the last major financial crisis of 2008, the 2020 health crisis presents less predictable results, nevertheless, we try to trace a post-crisis scenario. Given that in the hotel and commercial sectors the crisis will last longer than in others, in the office segment, reductions in the volumes of new rental contracts are expected and in the long term, the offices themselves will also transform, with the increase in the smart working we will have transformed offices, smaller, digitized, with central and also merged locations. More generally, the residential sector should go quite better, except for short leases, student and senior citizens residences and development phase projects. This situation will favor a shift towards medium and long-term rents to businessmen, expats, international students. Many property owners will sell influenced by liquidity needs and this will increase the opportunities for those who have liquidity or can be financed to do good business in big cities. After some short-term difficulties, therefore, the residential sector will present new opportunities for strategic investments, representing a valid portfolio alternative to traditional markets. As history teaches, after every major calamity, markets are flooded with liquidity to restart the economy, so states are expected to introduce a lot of liquidity to the market again, prompting banks to do the same thing. From such a situation, one of the sectors to receive the most thrust will be precisely the real estate sector, which, after having passed a first phase of initial uncertainty, will be considered a good refuge and will start growing again, in particular in the big cities of economically countries advanced. The emergency will also definitely open the way to innovations that already exist, but are still niche. Digital services will be greatly developed with legal services that will operate remotely and with new specialized payment platforms. Those more agile and digitized real estate agencies, will fly through virtual tours, with the help of photos, signatures, electronic locks and teleconferences.
Osservatorio AAAC (Agenzia Immobiliare in Roma)